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03/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Leighton made 27 saves to help the Philadelphia Flyers take a 3-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs at Wachovia Center.
Danny Briere, Simon Gagne and Jeff Carter each had a goal for the Flyers, who snapped a two-game slide. Chris Pronger added two assists in the win.
Nikolai Kulemin scored the lone goal for the Maple Leafs, who have dropped five of their last six. Jean-Sebastien Giguere made 22 stops in the loss.
Toronto took four penalties over a 4:34 span in the first period, with Colton Orr taking three of the minors.
Philly had extended power-play time thanks to the infractions and were able to put the puck into the net. On a 5-on-3, Pronger used the slap-pass from the high slot to send it to the low left circle where Carter slammed it into the wide open net for his 30th goal of the season at the 13:22 mark.
The Maple Leafs tied the game 3:55 into the second, as Carl Gunnarsson threw a shot on net from the left point that was knocked down in front, and Kulemin backhanded the puck in from the right side.
The Flyers, though, scored twice in a 1:16 span late in the second to take the lead back for good.
The first goal came after a right circle faceoff win as the puck came around to the left side. Daniel Carcillo slid the puck over to the left circle where Gagne kicked it from his skate to his stick and snapped the puck into the net at the 17:09 mark.
A bit later, Briere made it a 3-1 game as he wristed home the puck in the slot off a pass from Braydon Coburn.
Leighton made 10 stops and helped Philadelphia kill a couple of power plays in the third period to hang on for the win.
Game Notes
Philly returns home to face the Islanders on Tuesday...Toronto hosts Boston on Tuesday...The Flyers have taken two of three against the Leafs this season...Philly went 1-for-6 on the power play, while Toronto was 0-for-4.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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