Federer, Djokovic, Soderling reach fourth round in Flushing

Tennis Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five-time champion Roger Federer, 2007 U.S. Open finalist Novak Djokovic and two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling were easy third-round winners Saturday at the U.S. Open.

The second-seeded former No. 1 Federer cruised past capable Frenchman Paul- Henri Mathieu 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 at Ashe Stadium. The mighty Swiss advanced in 1 hour, 39 minutes by ripping 13 aces and holding his formidable serve throughout against Mathieu, who was broken four times by Federer.

Federer is now 54-5 lifetime at the U.S. Open here, including five straight titles from 2004-08. The super Swiss was stunned by big Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in last year's finale at Ashe.

The 16-time Grand Slam event champion Federer, the reigning Australian Open titlist, is trying to reach a seventh straight U.S. Open final.

"The wind was very strong. Tough conditions to play in, especially if you're down in the score. I think you could tell Mathieu was really struggling after being down in the score. His serve, his returns, everything kind of falls into pieces. That's what the wind can do to you," Federer said of Saturday's conditions.

The Swiss' next test will feature Austrian 13th seed Jurgen Melzer, who made short work of Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero in a 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 final that lasted just 1 hour, 44 minutes. The 29-year-old had never moved past the round of 32 here in eight previous attempts.

A third-seeded Djokovic dispatched American James Blake in 1 hour, 44 minutes with a tidy 6-1, 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 win. The Serb swatted four aces and broke back four times against Blake, who also committed 31 unforced errors.

The 2008 Australian Open champ and runner-up to Federer here in 2007, Djokovic will next face off against emerging American threat Mardy Fish, whose best finish here was a quarterfinal defeat to Rafael Nadal in 2008.

Seeded 19th this time around, Fish staved off Frenchman Arnaud Clement for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 triumph to reach the final 16 on Day 6 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

The fifth-seeded Soderling whipped Dutchman Thiemo De Bakker 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 in 1 hour , 52 minutes. The Swedish slugger saw De Bakker pile up 35 unforced errors and broke De Bakker six times.

The Swede advanced amid very windy conditions on Saturday.

"It was difficult conditions," Soderling said. "I told myself before the match, It's not gonna be pretty. I think during the circumstances, I played a pretty good match."

Soderling lost to world No. 1 superstar Nadal in this year's French Open final and gave way to Federer in last year's Roland Garros finale.

Up next for Soderling will be 21st-seeded Spaniard Albert Montanes, who was leading Kei Nishikori 6-2, 2-1 when the Japanese retired due to a groin injury on Court 11.

Acrobatic 17th-seeded Frenchman Gael Monfils secured a spot in the fourth round with a 7-6 (7-4), 6-7 (4-7), 6-2, 6-4 victory over Serbian Janko Tipsarevic, who stunned American favorite Andy Roddick in the second round here. Tipsarevic was slowed by a hamstring injury on Saturday.

The oft-injured Monfils is currently enjoying his best Grand Slam result of 2010.

Another Frenchman reached the fourth round, as former top-10 star Richard Gasquet grounded South African Kevin Anderson 6-4, 7-6 (7-3), 7-5. Gasquet will face Monfils in an all-French affair next time out.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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