Bonds brings home run chase to hallowed grounds of Milwaukee

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barry Bonds is within reach of Hank Aaron's all-time home run mark of 755, and may catch "Hammerin Hank" in the city that the legend spent most of his career, as the San Francisco Giants are set to begin a three-game series tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park.

Bonds returned to the lineup in a big way on Thursday against the Cubs after missing three straight games due to sore legs. He first snapped his 0-for-21 skid when he led off the second inning with a home run to right field, and then belted the 753rd homer of his career in the seventh inning.

Overall, he finished 3-for-3 with six RBI and three runs scored, but it wasn't enough as the Giants fell to Chicago, 9-8.

Matt Morris (7-6) was tagged for eight runs -- five earned -- over 4 2/3 innings of work for the Giants, who have dropped seven of eight.

So now Bonds brings his home run chase to Milwaukee, where Aaron played from 1954-65 with the Braves and then in 1975-76 with the Brewers.

And if that wasn't enough pressure, Bonds will also have to endure questions as to whether he thinks MLB commissioner should be in attendance as he attempts to catch and pass Aaron. Selig is a former owner of the Brewers and a Milwaukee resident.

The Giants will send Noah Lowry and his team-high nine wins to the hill tonight as they try to get back on the winning track. The left-hander is 3-1 over his last four starts with a 2.63 earned run average, but that loss came last time out against the Dodgers on Sunday. Lowry was tagged for five runs (four earned) on 10 hits and four walks over 5 2/3 innings for his seventh loss of the season. His ERA also lifted to 3.50 in the setback.

The 26-year-old is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA in three lifetime starts against Milwaukee. That includes a setback to the club on June 18 of this year in which Lowry allowed five runs over 5 2/3 innings.

Jeff Suppan, meanwhile, will attempt to halt a four-start winless streak when he toes the rubber for the Brewers tonight. Since a victory over Kansas City on June 22, Suppan has gone 0-1, but pitched well in a no-decision against Colorado on Sunday. Versus the Rockies, the right-hander yielded just two runs over six innings on five hits and three walks.

Suppan, who is 8-8 on the year with a 4.90 ERA, has yet to face the Giants this season, but won his lone start against them last year. Lifetime, he is 3-4 against them with a 4.95 ERA in seven starts.

Bonds is just 2-for-12 lifetime against Suppan, but one of those hits was a home run. However, he is a career .363 hitter against Milwaukee with 21 lifetime long balls.

The Brewers come into this set as winners in five of six. That includes a rout of Arizona on Thursday, as Tony Graffanino went 2-for-4, homered, drove in three runs and scored three times to lead Milwaukee to a 10-1 victory.

Yovani Gallardo (2-1) held Arizona to only three hits through six innings, striking out four, and Matt Wise earned a rare save, his first of the season.

Gabe Gross also homered for the Brewers, who lead the Chicago Cubs by 3 1/2 games for first place in the NL Central. The club is also 5-2 on a 10-game homestand.

The Brewers have won seven straight -- all at home -- over the Giants, including a three-game sweep this year in Milwaukee from June 18-20. San Francisco's last win at Miller Park came on May 3 of last season.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.